Friday 10 July 2015

H1 profits – a 3.6% cost of risk?


·         Stanbic IBTC’s (Stanbic) H1 PBT was down 52% y/y and Net Profits were down 40% y/y, lagging our 2015e run-rate. The drivers were a significant increase in Interest Expense and a high Impairment Charge (We modelled a lower cost of risk of 2.5% for the bank in 2015).
·         Annualised RoAE of 15.0% for H1 2015 (using CSL’s 2015e equity estimate) is well short of our forecast of 20.4% for the full year. The bank has proposed an interim dividend of N0.90/s.
·         We have a Hold rating on Stanbic with a price target of N28.82/share (current price: N25.01) based on an implied 1.9x PBV to our forecast 2015e BVPS of N14.3/s.
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